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Thread: CoR and MoM

  1. #1
    Join Date
    May 2004
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    CoR and MoM

    People, you may have heard the buzz that the Club of Rome's "standard run" has been pretty much matching the Real World for the last half century. If it continues, the rest of this century is going to be extremely interesting in the Chinese sense. What's more, people in such circumstances are prone to do Stupid Things and we have the military arsenals to make the scenario far worse. Finally, there is the possibility that science and modernity may be scapegoated for this and we may throw the baby out with the bath water, entering a new Dark Age. With easily usable resources depleted if not exhausted, recovery could be quite difficult and the cultural accomplishments of half a millennium could be lost forever.
    Please consider contributing text and other data to the Memory of Mankind time capsule. Your one-hundred-greats grandchildren may thank you.

    https://www.memory-of-mankind.com/
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Memory_of_Mankind
    SHARKS (crossed out) MONGEESE (sic) WITH FRICKIN' LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Mazanec View Post
    People, you may have heard the buzz that the Club of Rome's "standard run" has been pretty much matching the Real World for the last half century.
    I hadn’t heard that, no. Actually, while it has been a long time since I read The Limits to Growth, I thought we were supposed to be far into the civilization collapse phase by 2021 in their “standard run”? Though I believe they later revised their projections more than once, but never admitted to any problems with their methodology.

    My view is that while there are ultimate theoretical limits to growth, their models were hopelessly simplistic. They didn’t take changing technology, economics or culture into account and their resource models were ridiculous.

    For example, they would add a fixed increase in recycling or a fixed decrease in pollution (which incidentally, was simply a single number, there was no consideration for different kinds of pollution with different effects) to a model and project results but they didn’t consider effects of increasing recycling over time (as would be expected as scarcity and cost of original product increases) or decreasing pollution (as technology improves and there is more public pressure to reduce pollution). They didn’t consider use of less rich ores for metals or other needs as technology improved and increased cost made them economical. They didn’t consider that there would be practical and cultural incentives for people to have less children, reducing (in general, not everywhere) population growth. And so on.

    Now, memory of mankind sounds like a worthwhile idea as insurance, but not because I take Club of Rome’s models seriously.

    "The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is hard to verify their authenticity." Abraham Lincoln

    I say there is an invisible elf in my backyard. How do you prove that I am wrong?

    The Leif Ericson Cruiser

  3. #3
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    Well, that's the "buzz".
    If nothing else, preserve your favorite "niche culture" in Memory of Mankind.
    SHARKS (crossed out) MONGEESE (sic) WITH FRICKIN' LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Mazanec View Post
    Well, that's the "buzz".
    If nothing else, preserve your favorite "niche culture" in Memory of Mankind.
    I'm content to be part of the Amnesia of Mankind.

    Grant Hutchison
    Science Denier and Government Sponsored Propagandist. Here to help.
    Blog

  5. #5
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    I see that the model has been revised from the “business as usual” curve of the last few years. The new Business as usual prediction is for a delayed collapse.

    The model is limited by trends as opposed to events, e.g. global pandemics, the effects of which we are still in the process of learning. Events this century include the 9/11 attacks which economists are saying caused the inflationary effects of money printing (quantitative easing) and other commentators link to Afghanistan. It is very frustrating when attempting a predictive model, to include events which, if they happen, change everything.
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

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