The COVID-19 Discussion Thread (OTB)

[Noclevername]

So the B.1.1.7 mutation now is on the fast track to become our dominant strain in the US in a few months. Two steps forward, then a kick in the face.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/...cid=mm7003e2_w

[Gillianren]

At least it looks like a few of the basic things we've been hoping for in this country to fight the virus are about to actually happen.

[Noclevername]

At least it looks like a few of the basic things we've been hoping for in this country to fight the virus are about to actually happen.

I have to keep reminding myself that progress is being made, and order is finally being projected over chaos. Left on its own, bad news drives out good, so I must actively fight to keep hope or it slips away.

[The Backroad Astronomer]

I realized earlier that an old board member and moderator Moose was last spotted in part of my province getting hit the most by Covid. Also I guess the auction company is not coming to town this weekend probably because of the new restrictions, well they haven't called me to work.

[The Backroad Astronomer]

Just watching the news and the South African and English variation has made to the maritimes in December with a case of each on at the same university my niece is going to and one part of the province is going under lockdown.

[Extravoice]

My adult niece just contacted us to let us know her two elementary-school-aged kids have tested positive for COVID. One has a fever, the other has no symptoms. Thus far, she and her husband have tested negative.

Their biggest concern is for the grandparents, who have been watching the kids after school. No word on them yet.

[Trebuchet]

My adult niece just contacted us to let us know her two elementary-school-aged kids have tested positive for COVID. One has a fever, the other has no symptoms. Thus far, she and her husband have tested negative.

Their biggest concern is for the grandparents, who have been watching the kids after school. No word on them yet.

My adult niece is to visit us tomorrow. I'm a bit uncomfortable with it but my wife wants to see her. My niece and her husband spent New Years Eve with two other couples. But she's isolating since. And my county is only vaccinating those over 75, except they aren't, because they've run out. We are the oldest county in the state.

[The Backroad Astronomer]

How does on county become older than the rest of the state.

[grant hutchison]

How does on county become older than the rest of the state.

I don't know if that's a joke or not.
If it isn't--demographically.

Grant Hutchison

[Trebuchet]

How does on county become older than the rest of the state.

I don't know if that's a joke or not.
If it isn't--demographically.

Grant Hutchison

Of course. The county's most important "industry" is retirement, and we are just one of many examples. More than 20% of the population is over 65.

In normal times, retirement would be even with tourism as the most important "industry". But these are not normal times.

Jefferson County, Washington. Note the increase in median age from 2000 to 2010. That'll happen again in the 2020 census.

[profloater]

Classic bad reporting of the new strain discovered in the UK. If 1000 over sixties men catch it the number expected to die goes from 10 to 13. Thats 1% to 1.3%. Also a small study contradicted by other small studies. But that is an increase of 0.3% not 30% as reported in both UK and USA.

[grant hutchison]

Classic bad reporting of the new strain discovered in the UK. If 1000 over sixties men catch it the number expected to die goes from 10 to 13. Thats 1% to 1.3%. Also a small study contradicted by other small studies. But that is an increase of 0.3% not 30% as reported in both UK and USA.

Yes, journalists love quoting relative risk, because a small change in absolute risk might not create sufficiently widespread alarm and despondency. (David Spiegelhalter spends some time discussing this particular media trait in his excellent book "The Art Of Statistics".)
It was an interesting choice to drop this nugget into a recent press briefing in the UK, given how rubbish the supporting data are at present. I can't decide whether it was an effort to pre-empt accusations of concealing information from the public, or an effort to alarm people back into just following the freakin' rules for a change.

Grant Hutchison

[The Backroad Astronomer]

I don't know if that's a joke or not.
If it isn't--demographically.

Grant Hutchison

It was ajoke.

[Gillianren]

A friend just got the shot this week; so far as I can tell, her only underlying condition is asthma.

[grant hutchison]

A friend just got the shot this week; so far as I can tell, her only underlying condition is asthma.

That'll certainly do it--depending on the asthma, that's straight into a moderate/severe risk category, which gets you ahead of me in the queue in the UK.

Grant Hutchison

[Jim]

A friend just got the shot this week; so far as I can tell, her only underlying condition is asthma.

That'll certainly do it--depending on the asthma, that's straight into a moderate/severe risk category, which gets you ahead of me in the queue in the UK.

Which is what got our granddaughter on the short list. She got her first injection a couple of weeks ago.

[Trebuchet]

My lovely niece visited yesterday. It was great but frustrating. She's been distancing and not seeing people but still we wore masks and kept apart while she was here.
What really kind of upset me was when she talked about work. She's a second-grade teacher, doing-so remotely. Her class is down to only 17 kids, parents having taken the rest to other options including permanent remote learning. I asked her if it wasn't hard on the kids not having the classroom experience. She said very much so. Sometimes she just lets them chat so they get the interaction.
But what's worse is her husband's class. He teaches junior-high age kids in a special education program -- it's not for the really handicapped, but for those who are behind and not getting the support they need at home. She said often they just turn off their cameras and he doesn't know if they are even in the room. She brought him breakfast the other day while he was working and he asked her to take it away. He didn't want the kids to see it because he knew some wouldn't have eaten. Very sad.

[Gillianren]

I understand a lot of the drive from parents to get their kids back in school. I do. Many don't have any other childcare options and have for years arranged their work schedules around the idea that their children will be in school at a specific time. (Their children also would've reliably been fed at school, which is a whole other issue.) It's certainly true that I can see how the prolonged lack of social interaction is very bad for Simon; he's losing it. He was already behind socially when all this started, and his skills are slipping more the longer he spends away. We actually had a long talk about it the other day and about how unfair the situation is for him. It's a year since the first patient was hospitalized in the US, and we shouldn't still be dealing with the situation.

[Van Rijn]

Well, I think I have it. Symptoms, so far, are mild. I made the mistake of going to a store rather than having groceries delivered this time. I kept my distance, had my mask, and seriously scrubbed my hands and arms when I got home, but it is possible I touched my face while there - it is very easy to do that without thinking.

Anyway, on the night about five days after I was there, I woke up at night in my recliner very chilled. That isn’t unknown to me, but after turning up the heat and still shivering after a couple hours in bed under a comforter, not really able to go back to sleep, I could tell this wasn’t a typical chill.

I eventually checked my temperature, over 101F, eventually going up to 102. Tylenol helped immensely, it reset my internal thermostat, my temperature dropped and the chills ended. Surprisingly, I felt good other than when I had the chills, no headache or body pain.

The other key symptom has been a dry cough, mostly at night. It’s annoying, but hasn’t been that bad relative to coughing fits I usually have in a typical cold or flu.

This is the fourth day, and I still have a fever, but it seems to be on a downward trend, from 102 to 101 to 100 or a little over, sometimes dipping into the normal range, increasing at night. Chills at night, but they also seem to be getting milder. Appetite seems a bit low, but smell and taste are still okay.

So far, breathing seems normal, and that has always been what has concerned me most. From what I have read, I could still get more serious symptoms. Here’s hoping my immune system does right by me this time. (I tend to get long colds or flus, and then I have CD, an autoimmune disease, so sometimes I get a bit annoyed with the performance of my immune system.)

I have enough food and supplies for a fair bit of time. I haven’t looked into testing yet, and am just hoping it will stay mild and I won’t need a hospital stay.

[Trebuchet]

Well, I think I have it. Symptoms, so far, are mild. I made the mistake of going to a store rather than having groceries delivered this time. I kept my distance, had my mask, and seriously scrubbed my hands and arms when I got home, but it is possible I touched my face while there - it is very easy to do that without thinking.

Anyway, on the night about five days after I was there, I woke up at night in my recliner very chilled. That isn’t unknown to me, but after turning up the heat and still shivering after a couple hours in bed under a comforter, not really able to go back to sleep, I could tell this wasn’t a typical chill.

I eventually checked my temperature, over 101F, eventually going up to 102. Tylenol helped immensely, it reset my internal thermostat, my temperature dropped and the chills ended. Surprisingly, I felt good other than when I had the chills, no headache or body pain.

The other key symptom has been a dry cough, mostly at night. It’s annoying, but hasn’t been that bad relative to coughing fits I usually have in a typical cold or flu.

This is the fourth day, and I still have a fever, but it seems to be on a downward trend, from 102 to 101 to 100 or a little over, sometimes dipping into the normal range, increasing at night. Chills at night, but they also seem to be getting milder. Appetite seems a bit low, but smell and taste are still okay.

So far, breathing seems normal, and that has always been what has concerned me most. From what I have read, I could still get more serious symptoms. Here’s hoping my immune system does right by me this time. (I tend to get long colds or flus, and then I have CD, an autoimmune disease, so sometimes I get a bit annoyed with the performance of my immune system.)

I have enough food and supplies for a fair bit of time. I haven’t looked into testing yet, and am just hoping it will stay mild and I won’t need a hospital stay.

GO GET TESTED! At least call your doctor. This isn't just about you! The investigators need to look at where you got it and who you might have been with while asymptomatic! GO GET TESTED!

[Van Rijn]

GO GET TESTED! At least call your doctor. This isn't just about you! The investigators need to look at where you got it and who you might have been with while asymptomatic! GO GET TESTED!

I’m trying to figure out how they could trace who gave it to me, given that I made a point of avoiding close contact, and there were a decent number of people around, mostly other customers, not just a few you could narrow it down to. I’m guessing I might have gotten it from a surface simply because there wasn’t anyone crowding near me, or anything like that. And I haven’t been around any human since my visit, so I couldn’t have passed it on. I’m making a point of not interacting too much with my cat. I’ll call in to the doc, though.

[ozduck]

I’m trying to figure out how they could trace who gave it to me, given that I made a point of avoiding close contact, and there were a decent number of people around, mostly other customers, not just a few you could narrow it down to. I’m guessing I might have gotten it from a surface simply because there wasn’t anyone crowding near me, or anything like that. And I haven’t been around any human since my visit, so I couldn’t have passed it on. I’m making a point of not interacting too much with my cat. I’ll call in to the doc, though.

I can say little just look after yourself.

[Van Rijn]

I can say little just look after yourself.

Thanks. I’m feeling good so far, and the fever (without Tylenol) is 100.1F, so a definite decline from before.

If it isn’t COVID-19, I’m curious what it would be. I’ve never had this combination of symptoms (chills at times, fever, dry cough, but no congestion or other obvious symptoms) before. Just very odd, and as long as it stays mild, I’m happy.

By the way, my electronic thermometer ran out of juice, but I’ve probably had it for twenty years or more. It uses one of those mini batteries and I don’t have replacements, but I inherited a couple of even older mercury thermometers, and they work just fine though are harder to read. That brought back an odd sense of nostalgia. I wouldn’t be surprised if they are close to my age.

[Noclevername]

I haven’t looked into testing yet, and am just hoping it will stay mild and I won’t need a hospital stay.

Test it! Absolutely. Please. Strongest possible recommendation. And make notes about who you have been in contact with in that time.

[Van Rijn]

And make notes about who you have been in contact with in that time.

Those would be very short notes. As I said above, I haven’t been near any human since my store visit and there isn’t a lot I can say about that either. I currently live alone except for my cat and I’ve been making a point of social distancing. I messed up by going to a store.

[Extravoice]

Those would be very short notes. As I said above, I haven’t been near any human since my store visit and there isn’t a lot I can say about that either. I currently live alone except for my cat and I’ve been making a point of social distancing. I messed up by going to a store.

Take care. There have been reports of people seemingly beginning to recover, only to take a turn for the worse. Alerting your doctor of the situation is prudent.

Don’t beat yourself up about the store trip. You seem to have taken reasonable precautions.

[Noclevername]

Yes, VR, as Extravoice says, don't blame yourself.

It could be a lot of things, but a test would either confirm or rule it out, impacting any future immunity you might or might not have.

As for notes, what store you went to and if you can recall, who served you.

[Grey]

Well, I think I have it. Symptoms, so far, are mild. I made the mistake of going to a store rather than having groceries delivered this time. I kept my distance, had my mask, and seriously scrubbed my hands and arms when I got home, but it is possible I touched my face while there - it is very easy to do that without thinking.

Very sorry to hear that Van Rijn, but glad that the symptoms so far are mild. The fact that it's contagious enough that you can be almost completely isolated, but a single relatively short interaction (even while wearing a mask) can result in infection, is much of why it is so hard to get under control. Here's hoping your case remains mild.

[Gillianren]

Yesterday, when I checked our previous day's case load, the site I use claimed my county had had over 4000 new cases the day before. I went to check the state's department of health (that's off by nearly 4000 cases), and I discovered that they now have a site that will let you sign up to be notified when it's your turn to be vaccinated.

[PetersCreek]

I'm having cataract surgery on Wednesday. Since my previous (right eye) surgery earlier this month, they've modified their COVID-19 protocols to require pre-op testing. During my pre-op consult, the awesome opthalmology nurse, Denise, gave me instructions for it and I knocked it out yesterday. It was a piece of cake...aside from the 20-mile drive to base on slushy, slick roads. But hey...Alaska.

As instructed, I drove behind the hospital proper to a hinterland staff parking lot (to which I'd never been) where the respiratory clinic had several parking spaces reserved for drive-up testing. I'd been told to park, call the provided number, and a technician would come out to swab me. As it happened, a junior '4 Alpha' (healthcare admin, my old job) was attending the lot for intake, so I didn't even have to call. A few minutes after giving him my particulars, the tech came out, swabbed my brain stem, and I was off.

Something else Denise told me: they won't call me with a negative result...just positive.

Soooo, yeah. I got a call this morning and of course, the caller ID showed it was the 673d Medical Group. Hoo boy. "Hi, this is Senior Airman Bagodonuts and I'm calling about your test results. Can you verify your identity for me?" I did so and she went on, "Your test came back negative for COVID-19. Do you have any questions?" I exhaled, laughed a little, and said "no." But I did tell her that she got my heart rate up for a minute since I wasn't expecting a call for a negative result. She laughed, too and explained that it's her clinic's policy to call with all results and mine has already been posted in my electronic record.

So, unless my EBMD torpedos me between now and Wednesday, I'm all set.