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Thread: The COVID-19 Discussion Thread (OTB)

  1. #2131
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheManWithNoName View Post
    I would agree, but that’s not the sort of thing to which I was referring - these things are small beer compared to some of the other measures that were implemented, and not just in the country that experienced the attack.
    Oh yes. Well beyond such petty issues as "civil liberties" and solidly into "human rights" territory. But that way lies politics, and I was trying to come up with some relatively trivial examples of "government mandated limitations on a person's control of their own body, property and privacy" in airports, to balance the more trivial impositions associated with Covid, which some people seem to find unacceptable.

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  2. #2132
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    Quote Originally Posted by SeanF View Post
    Indeed.

    On the third hand, how are vaccine mandates and "passports" going to affect those people with sensitivities about bodily and medical privacy? It seems (to me, anyway) a decidedly different thing when required to go into a restaurant than when required to get on an airplane.
    Well, politics again.

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  3. #2133
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    Oh yes. Well beyond such petty issues as "civil liberties" and solidly into "human rights" territory. But that way lies politics, and I was trying to come up with some relatively trivial examples of "government mandated limitations on a person's control of their own body, property and privacy" in airports, to balance the more trivial impositions associated with Covid, which some people seem to find unacceptable.
    I went back and looked at your list of airport restrictions. I don't agree that being required to wear a mask virtually every time you're outside your home is "more trivial" than any of them (excepting the scanner).

    It's almost axiomatic that being required to do something whenever you're in public is less trivial than being required to do something in order to board an airplane. And some places put restrictions on people's freedom to even be in public, which doesn't even belong in the same room as the word "trivial."
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  4. #2134
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    Quote Originally Posted by SeanF View Post
    It's almost axiomatic that being required to do something whenever you're in public is less trivial than being required to do something in order to board an airplane.
    It also depends on the thing you're required to do, and to what extent that interferes with your control of your body, property and privacy. Rare impositions that intrude strongly on one's locus of control are not directly comparable to frequent impositions that intrude to a small extent on one's locus of control. I find the rare impositions by airport security considerably more objectionable than mask mandates. I accept that we differ, however.

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  5. #2135
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    It also depends on the thing you're required to do, and to what extent that interferes with your control of your body, property and privacy. Rare impositions that intrude strongly on one's locus of control are not directly comparable to frequent impositions that intrude to a small extent on one's locus of control. I find the rare impositions by airport security considerably more objectionable than mask mandates. I accept that we differ, however.
    Agreed on the relevance of the required/prohibited behavior. Also agree to accept that we differ.
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  6. #2136
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
    ... There were half a dozen anti-mask, anti-vax, anti-intelligence protesters at the corner of Safeway, McDonalds, and boatyard. With signs like "MRNA Vax = Human GMO". "Vaccine passports = tyranny." ...
    I saw a sign (posted on line) obviously handmade by an anti-vaxxer:
    I KNOW BETTER THAN THE SCIETISTS
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  7. #2137
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    This article makes a second dose of J&J vaccine sound very promising, increasing effectiveness from 70 to 94 percent.

    https://www.reuters.com/business/hea...94-2021-09-21/

    However, given the following statement, I wish things could move a little faster.

    The data is yet to be peer reviewed but will be submitted for publication in the coming months.
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  8. #2138
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    Someone I know very slightly just died. It was their second bout of Covid; they caught it again at faire, which I knew shouldn't have happened.
    _____________________________________________
    Gillian

    "Now everyone was giving her that kind of look UFOlogists get when they suddenly say, 'Hey, if you shade your eyes you can see it is just a flock of geese after all.'"

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  9. #2139
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    Models are indicating that things may be getting better-or at least less bad in the US.

    https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...-through-march

    Fewer infections is a good thing, but statements like the following donít make me particularly joyful:

    ďThe virus has eaten up the susceptible people. So there are less people out there to infect."
    I may have many faults, but being wrong ain't one of them. - Jimmy Hoffa

  10. #2140
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gillianren View Post
    Someone I know very slightly just died. It was their second bout of Covid; they caught it again at faire, which I knew shouldn't have happened.
    You were wise not to go.
    I have three major fun events this time of year: The PT wooden boat festival, the Pumpkin Pitch, and the Kinetic Skulpture Race. The first two were cancelled. Last I heard the latter is still on. I'll probably just stay home.
    Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt.

  11. #2141
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    Quote Originally Posted by bknight View Post
    We have some friends whose granddaughter is ~12 and her mother, a germophobic to the max, won't allow her daughter to be vaccinated for fear of ovary/uterus possible issues. Bothe parents and grandparents are all fully vaccinated.
    We found out that the granddaughter has covid nothing serious as of last night.

  12. #2142
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    The latest argument I've seen against the vaccine is the claim from one study in Israel that the immunity gained from contracting COVID provides greater protection than any of the vaccines. So, maybe, catch the disease instead of getting vaccinated? Y'know, to protect you from catching the disease ... again.

    Of course, there is that pesky risk of dying, but, hey, someone else pointed out that's only about one percent of the infected.

    (This is reminiscent of the Measles Parties some parents held before there was a vaccine. Catch it and become immune from ever catching it again.)
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  13. #2143
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    The latest argument I've seen against the vaccine is the claim from one study in Israel that the immunity gained from contracting COVID provides greater protection than any of the vaccines. So, maybe, catch the disease instead of getting vaccinated? Y'know, to protect you from catching the disease ... again.

    Of course, there is that pesky risk of dying, but, hey, someone else pointed out that's only about one percent of the infected.

    (This is reminiscent of the Measles Parties some parents held before there was a vaccine. Catch it and become immune from ever catching it again.)
    Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by ignorance or stupidity.
    Isaac Asimov

    You know, the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common. They donít alter their views to fit the facts. They alter the facts to fit their views.
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  14. 2021-Sep-23, 01:11 PM
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    duplicate created by editing

  15. #2144
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim View Post
    (This is reminiscent of the Measles Parties some parents held before there was a vaccine.
    Measles parties are still a thing, according to some reports and epidemic modelling. Although they're likely to be secretive affairs, and some people have suggested they're an urban myth to give anti-vaxxers a bad name (as if further effort in that direction were needed), modelling the epidemiology of the recent outbreak in New York suggested that it wouldn't have been so bad if there weren't some mechanism selectively bringing together unvaccinated children with infectious children.

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  16. #2145
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    And it's clear that it is possible to get the disease a second time. And if you do, the odds that you will die of it go way up. The only person I personally have so far known who has was advised by a doctor not to get the vaccine because they'd already had the disease. A friend asked them to get a second opinion, and they wouldn't.
    _____________________________________________
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    "You can't erase icing."

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  17. #2146
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    There used to be chicken pox parties for children prior to vaccine availability. I think the concept was that catching it provided long-lived immunity. This prevented infection as a teenager or adult when the danger was much worse.

    I donít think that reasoning applies to COVID-19.
    I may have many faults, but being wrong ain't one of them. - Jimmy Hoffa

  18. #2147
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    Quote Originally Posted by Extravoice View Post
    There used to be chicken pox parties for children prior to vaccine availability. I think the concept was that catching it provided long-lived immunity. This prevented infection as a teenager or adult when the danger was much worse.

    I don’t think that reasoning applies to COVID-19.
    I attended one of those. Thanks, Mom, for the Shingles. She also made sure to do it in the summer so I wouldn't miss school.

    Further off-topic: I'm seeing some double posts and a partial double post. Forum weirdness?

    Back on Covid, the Kinetic Skulpture Race I mentioned above is indeed cancelled. And I should have been setting up for the Pumpkin Pitch tomorrow.
    Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt.

  19. #2148
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gillianren View Post
    And it's clear that it is possible to get the disease a second time. And if you do, the odds that you will die of it go way up. The only person I personally have so far known who has was advised by a doctor not to get the vaccine because they'd already had the disease. A friend asked them to get a second opinion, and they wouldn't.
    I guess you're talking about Covid here?
    The story that reinfection with Covid is more dangerous than first infection circulated at the start of the year, but there's a denominator error involved. It came from a Brazilian study of a small number of healthcare workers who developed Covid symptoms after a previous confirmed Covid infection, who did indeed show more severe symptoms (and one died). That provoked concerns that Covid might cause something called antibody-dependent enhancement, as is known to happen with dengue fever. But the Brazilian study wasn't designed to pick up asymptomatic reinfections--if a lot of reinfections were asymptomatic, than the rate of more severe disease would be much lower than the Brazilian study found. And that turned out to be the case. A later-published study from Qatar, which included those with asymptomatic reinfection, found that:
    [r]einfections were less severe than primary infections. Only one reinfection was severe, two were moderate, and none were critical or fatal. Most reinfections (66.7%) were diagnosed incidentally through random or routine testing, or through contact tracing.
    ...
    Reinfection is rare in the young and international population of Qatar. Natural infection appears to elicit strong protection against reinfection with an efficacy ~95% for at least seven months.
    Not that that suggests anyone should try to substitute natural infection for vaccination, but it's encouraging news for people who live in parts of the world where vaccine availability is still very low.

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  20. #2149
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
    Further off-topic: I'm seeing some double posts and a partial double post. Forum weirdness?
    Mine seems to be. I inadvertently posted before I'd written an explanatory note, called up edit immediately and added my text quickly to get in under the "post last edited" flag, and then checked the posted text was correct. I didn't notice that the previous version of the edited post had also been retained--I've now deleted it as a duplicate.
    Maybe I just pushed the wrong button somehow, but that's not one that's happened to me before.

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  21. #2150
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
    ... the Kinetic Skulpture Race I mentioned above is indeed cancelled. And I should have been setting up for the Pumpkin Pitch tomorrow.
    I think you should still do it, from your own front yard. Surprise the neighbors.

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  22. #2151
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
    ...

    Further off-topic: I'm seeing some double posts and a partial double post. Forum weirdness?

    ...
    Mine has been forum weirdness, some times taking as long as 7 seconds for a new post, other times a warning that the forum wants to know if you want to leave the forum after posting, some times a duplicate post.

  23. #2152
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    I've got to be honest, I don't think I've seen anyone argue that it's better, or preferable, to actually get Covid rather than get vaccinated.

    I have seen the argument made that there's no need for people who have already had Covid to get the vaccine as well, and the studies showing that Covid-induced immunity is (at least) as protective as vaccine-provided immunity are used to bolster that argument.

    Right or wrong, that's a completely different argument, isn't it?
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  24. #2153
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    Quote Originally Posted by SeanF View Post
    I've got to be honest, I don't think I've seen anyone argue that it's better, or preferable, to actually get Covid rather than get vaccinated.
    It's a thing.
    Given the low risk of Covid for most teenagers, it is not immoral to think that they may be better protected by natural immunity generated through infection than by asking them to take the *possible* risk of a vaccine.
    And he's not some random loon, but an adviser to the UK government.

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  25. #2154
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    It's a thing.And he's not some random loon, but an adviser to the UK government.

    Grant Hutchison
    A loon, nevertheless.

  26. #2155
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    Quote Originally Posted by Torsten View Post
    A loon, nevertheless.
    I'm thinking not necessarily, on the evidence presented. He was making a moral philosophical point about the Precautionary Principle, as embodied in the medical maxim "First, do no harm." His preceding tweet in that thread reads:
    The risk/benefit for teenagers must be firmly established. The UK programme has already been modified because the risk/benefit of AZ was not clear for 20 and 30 somethings. Teenagers are at intrinsically low risk from Covid. Vaccines must be exceptionally safe to beat this
    He was posting at the end of June, and we've accumulated more data since then, but the general point about risk/benefit remains.

    Where the loons come in is at the point where both the risk of vaccination and the immune benefit of natural infection are overestimated, and the risk from the disease itself underestimated, tipping the perceived risk/benefit balance towards everyone avoiding vaccination and just letting the disease rip. You can find plenty people advocating for that approach, but I'm not going to provide links because a) I don't like to send them traffic and b) all the sites I've seen are intensely political. It all got stirred up again recently because of this preprint from Israel:
    Our analysis demonstrates that SARS-CoV-2-naÔve vaccinees had a 13.06-fold increased risk for breakthrough infection with the Delta variant compared to those previously infected, when the first event (infection or vaccination) occurred during January and February of 2021. The increased risk was significant for a symptomatic disease as well.
    So (according to the data presented, and under the specific circumstances examined) you're thirteen times more likely to get a breakthrough infection after vaccination than a reinfection after natural infection. Which is striking, and unfortunately widely cherry-picked by the loons.
    There's some good discussion of the paper here, and also at factcheck.org.

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  27. #2156
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    I'm thinking not necessarily, on the evidence presented. He was making a moral philosophical point about the Precautionary Principle, as embodied in the medical maxim "First, do no harm." His preceding tweet in that thread reads:He was posting at the end of June, and we've accumulated more data since then, but the general point about risk/benefit remains.

    Where the loons come in is at the point where both the risk of vaccination and the immune benefit of natural infection are overestimated, and the risk from the disease itself underestimated, tipping the perceived risk/benefit balance towards everyone avoiding vaccination and just letting the disease rip. You can find plenty people advocating for that approach, but I'm not going to provide links because a) I don't like to send them traffic and b) all the sites I've seen are intensely political. It all got stirred up again recently because of this preprint from Israel:So (according to the data presented, and under the specific circumstances examined) you're thirteen times more likely to get a breakthrough infection after vaccination than a reinfection after natural infection. Which is striking, and unfortunately widely cherry-picked by the loons.
    There's some good discussion of the paper here, and also at factcheck.org.

    Grant Hutchison
    Ah yes, makes sense being June and AZ. I'm unclear to the precise timing, but we went through the same considerations regarding AZ and younger people.

    I'm uncertain, but I think the mRNA used in the approved vaccines is from before the D614G mutation became common. While that mutation apparently makes it easier for antibodies developed after vaccination to neutralize it, my question is whether a vaccine based on a later version of Spike would be even more effective. All of the people in the Israeli study would have been infected by a later variant with this and possibly other mutations. So the fact that the vaccines confer protection is that much more impressive. Also mentioned in one of your links, and ignored by the loons, is that vaccination after recovering from infection was shown to boost immunity even more than vaccination alone or naturally acquired immunity alone.

    I can't understand how the loons so readily discount the relatively high probability of severe disease and death from infection, as well as the possibility of long term adverse effects of Long Covid should they survive, just so that they may acquire immunity to a possible subsequent infection. It's just bonkers.

    If a 50 or 100 round revolver existed, and had one bullet in it, would they be willing to put it to their head?

    ETA: I wondered how I had missed Dingwall's earlier tweet. It was off screen, above the one you linked, and I only saw his subsequent posts appearing lower on the page.
    Last edited by Torsten; 2021-Sep-23 at 10:29 PM.

  28. #2157
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    Quote Originally Posted by Torsten View Post
    ETA: I wondered how I had missed Dingwall's earlier tweet. It was off screen, above the one you linked, and I only saw his subsequent posts appearing lower on the page.
    Sorry, probably my mistake. I try to avoid Twitter, so I'm not very adept at linking clearly to threaded tweets.

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  29. #2158
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    Looks like FDA and CDC just approved a Pfizer booster shot for those 65 and over (and some others). I think I'll go into town and get one tomorrow. I got my second Pfizer on Jan 28, so it's been a while.....
    Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.

  30. #2159
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cougar View Post
    Looks like FDA and CDC just approved a Pfizer booster shot for those 65 and over (and some others). I think I'll go into town and get one tomorrow. I got my second Pfizer on Jan 28, so it's been a while.....
    This has been really confusing. i was refused a booster just yesterday afternoon. Quite annoying.
    Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt.

  31. #2160
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
    This has been really confusing. i was refused a booster just yesterday afternoon. Quite annoying.
    Why did you refuse the booster? I'm still waiting an email from the hospital for me(us).

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