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Thread: Disease and pandemics thread (because it's science)

  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    I don’t think the point was that Ebola is unique in that regard, but rather that we need to think of it as more than just a health crisis and consider ways to prevent the conflicts, not simply send healthcare workers in.


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  2. #32
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    Security situation in Congo continues to deteriorate, Ebola continues to kill.

    https://news.google.com/stories/CAAq...S&ceid=US%3Aen
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  3. #33
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    Measles appearing more often in the U.S., which might lose "measles eliminated" status and result in child deaths. Be sure to personally thank an anti-vaxxer!

    https://www.livescience.com/65658-wh...liminated.html
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  4. #34
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    Still no good news on the Ebola outbreak in central Africa.

    https://medicalxpress.com/news/2019-...se-crisis.html
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

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    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

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    Updated coronavirus news from CNN, if you are interested. The disease symptoms are delayed long enough for it to be transmitted to others unknowingly.

    https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/c...-20/index.html

    Professional opinion on the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/24/opini...ett/index.html
    Last edited by Roger E. Moore; 2020-Jan-26 at 04:18 PM.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

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    BBC ongoing coverage of coronavirus outbreak.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/topics/cyz0...virus-outbreak

    Detailed article with maps.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51254523
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  8. #38
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    Meanwhile, Ebola has been moderating.

    Grant Hutchison

  9. #39
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    microbiology eventually brings balance. If human population grows at one percent for 12500 years, starting with two people, we would have more than the mass of the universe of just people. It has been repeated tragedies that has kept population under control, mostly microbiology. We just cannot predict the time or the hour.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    microbiology eventually brings balance. If human population grows at one percent for 12500 years, starting with two people, we would have more than the mass of the universe of just people. It has been repeated tragedies that has kept population under control, mostly microbiology. We just cannot predict the time or the hour.
    Is it really mostly microbiology? I would think that resource limitations, so starvation for example, would also be a big factor.
    As above, so below

  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    Is it really mostly microbiology? I would think that resource limitations, so starvation for example, would also be a big factor.
    You are correct. Usually fighting, disrupts food supply, which leads to disease and death.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

  12. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    Is it really mostly microbiology? I would think that resource limitations, so starvation for example, would also be a big factor.
    IIRC, prior to the invention of modern medicine and indoor plumbing, infection and sickness were the biggest direct killers. It was what kept the majority of the population from reaching reproductive age, for instance.
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

  13. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Noclevername View Post
    IIRC, prior to the invention of modern medicine and indoor plumbing, infection and sickness were the biggest direct killers. It was what kept the majority of the population from reaching reproductive age, for instance.
    Yes, I think that's true. And then another thing I forgot: apparently, before agriculture, so among Paleolithic people, accidents were a very frequent cause of mortality, along with predation, starvation, and infections.
    As above, so below

  14. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    Yes, I think that's true. And then another thing I forgot: apparently, before agriculture, so among Paleolithic people, accidents were a very frequent cause of mortality, along with predation, starvation, and infections.
    I can't imagine how bad it was without antibiotics after injuries.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

  15. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    If human population grows at one percent for 12500 years, starting with two people, we would have more than the mass of the universe of just people.
    Punched the numbers into the calculator, and I thought I must have made some sort of mistake, until I saw the e+54 at the end
    A: "Things that are equal to the same are equal to each other"
    B: "The two sides of this triangle are things that are equal to the same"
    C: "If A and B are true, Z must be true"
    D: "If A and B and C are true, Z must be true"
    E: "If A and B and C and D are true, Z must be true"

    Therefore, Z: "The two sides of this triangle are equal to each other"

  16. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by 21st Century Schizoid Man View Post
    Punched the numbers into the calculator, and I thought I must have made some sort of mistake, until I saw the e+54 at the end
    There has been a lot of calamity in the world to keep geometric progression under control.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

  17. #47
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    One has to wonder if the african swine fever problem in China, and the decrease in protein intake, have something to do with the Wuhan Corona virus getting a foothold.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    There has been a lot of calamity in the world to keep geometric progression under control.
    But be careful of confusing cause and effect. The best way of reducing birth rate is to improve the health, education and wealth of a population. So high birth rates are (partly) a response to high levels of disease and early death.

  19. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    There has been a lot of calamity in the world to keep geometric progression under control.
    That's kinda cutting the wrong end of the problem string. Start with keeping birth low, not death high.
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

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    Quote Originally Posted by Noclevername View Post
    That's kinda cutting the wrong end of the problem string. Start with keeping birth low, not death high.
    I don't mess with a system that 1 billion years of evolution has established. Survival of the fittest.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    I don't mess with a system that 1 billion years of evolution has established. Survival of the fittest.
    Survival of the lucky. In the modern world, if you happen to live where you have proper medical care, you'll most likely live. If not, you'll most likely die.
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    One has to wonder if the african swine fever problem in China, and the decrease in protein intake, have something to do with the Wuhan Corona virus getting a foothold.
    It seems more likely to me that our immune system evolved when we lived in small groups and has not caught up yet we are living in cities. I am just getting over a coronavirus (A common cold), because I made the mistake of visiting another city and going on a guided tour of an interesting Tudor house. I am pretty sure I picked up a new version of this old complaint there.
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

  23. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    I can't imagine how bad it was without antibiotics after injuries.
    In the Napoleonic wars there were horrific injuries and fewer infections than we might expect thanks to cauterisation and especially, honey.
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

  24. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    I don't mess with a system that 1 billion years of evolution has established. Survival of the fittest.
    Then I'm glad you don't run the system.

    I would be dead and my wife would be dead without modern medicine. As others have said, the best way to control population growth is by improving health and living conditions, not letting disease run rampant.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Swift View Post
    As others have said, the best way to control population growth is by improving health and living conditions, not letting disease run rampant.
    There's a difference between promoting general health and cleanliness and using so many drugs and chemicals that we force new and interesting varieties of bug to evolve. We can also end up compromising our immune systems by the lack of exposure to non-lethal bacteria and viruses.

    But I agree, pandemic as a method of deliberate population control is not a sensible course of action.

    Survival of the fittest describes an outcome, not a strategy. After all, the dinosaurs were dominant in their time, but conditions changed to favour smaller warm blooded creatures. We are apex predators at present. Who knows what environmental change will do to that over time. We've generally used technology to avoid natural forces. If that situation were to change, humans might be back on the menu.

  26. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    I don't mess with a system that 1 billion years of evolution has established. Survival of the fittest.
    So I'm deducing that, since you've arrived at that conclusion, you haven't sought medical care for yourself or your loved ones, and are prepared to go gently into that good night as soon as you get appendicitis or bronchopneumonia. Good for you.

    Grant Hutchison

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    I would like statistics on the 80 deaths so far. Were they children, elderly, compromised, etc.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    I would like statistics on the 80 deaths so far. Were they children, elderly, compromised, etc.
    Some info here: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...183-5/fulltext

    By Jan 2, 2020, 41 admitted hospital patients had been identified as having laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV infection. Most of the infected patients were men (30 [73%] of 41); less than half had underlying diseases (13 [32%]), including diabetes (eight [20%]), hypertension (six [15%]), and cardiovascular disease (six [15%]). Median age was 49·0 years (IQR 41·0–58·0).

  29. #59
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    You can't really extrapolate from the risk factors (or otherwise) present among hospital admissions to the risk factors among those who will die.
    And I'd caution against reading too much into the spectrum of risk factors among those who have died so far - there are lots of reasons for the later stages of an outbreak to look different from the early stages.

    Grant Hutchison

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    A new CNN report says eldery people with preexisting conditions make up most fatalities. I am worried we are not getting trustworthy data. Infected and fatality numbers seem to double every day or two.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

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