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Thread: Disease and pandemics thread (because it's science)

  1. #1051
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    I don't know if it's overkill, but even if strangers are not visiting the house, there is a danger that someone in the family would go out and bring viruses back on their clothes, and then touch the doorknobs after taking off their jacket.
    As a general rule, my clothes aren’t coming into contact with objects or people when I go out. My hands and my shoes do come into contact with objects, but rarely with people, especially these days. Generally they are keeping a few feet away at minimum right now.

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  2. #1052
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    The WHO declared a pandemic on the 12th March, 3 days after the second peak, so the next global 'easing' will probably be when the rough global Confirmed/Recovered ratio stops dropping and starts to peak again. Individual countries will show their own peaks/declines which will be indicative of how they are handling the pandemic locally.

    March 6 - 56.3
    March 7 - 56.0
    March 8 - 55.1
    March 9 - 56.3
    March 10 - 55.9
    March 11 - 55.2
    March 12 - 54.1
    March 13 - 53.2
    March 14 - 49.3
    March 15 - 47.3
    March 16 - 45.6
    March 17 - 43.5
    March 18 - 41.5

  3. #1053
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    Quote Originally Posted by Van Rijn View Post
    As a general rule, my clothes aren’t coming into contact with objects or people when I go out. My hands and my shoes do come into contact with objects, but rarely with people, especially these days. Generally they are keeping a few feet away at minimum right now.
    The virus can live in aerosol and on surfaces for hours, if you walk through someone's breath it can conceivably be carried on clothing.
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

  4. #1054
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    This https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4788752/
    Explains how viruses work and we can see why initial dose matters.
    One particle can get into one cell and bursts out about one million new virus particles. This is the first chance our immune system can react. So receiving a dose of millions in the first place, from a cough, say, Is a worse situation for an uneducated immune system. Washing hands will reduce the number of virus particles you are carrying and transferring to your face orifices.
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

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    Yesterday my sister had to go out to work. On arriving home, she avoided us and immediately threw her clothes in the washer, and jumped in the shower.

    Now she's allowed to telecommute, so hopefully that won't need to be repeated.

    ADDED: My mother is very high risk, elderly asthmatic just getting over pneumonia. We take a lot of precautions.
    Last edited by Noclevername; 2020-Mar-18 at 12:23 PM.
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    I'm a school teacher in Connecticut; we're all working from home and trying to manage online learning. So far, I've had exactly one student (out of about 80; I've got an unusually small load for a high school teacher) respond in any way.

    I'm going to write the governor and suggest that we've got to extend the school year past June 30 or do Saturday classes if we can't get at least 160 days in (he waived the normal 180 day requirement).
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  7. #1057
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    Quote Originally Posted by Noclevername View Post
    Yesterday my sister had to go out to work. On arriving home, she avoided us and immediately threw her clothes in the washer, and jumped in the shower.

    Now she's allowed to telecommute, so hopefully that won't need to be repeated.

    ADDED: My mother is very high risk, elderly asthmatic just getting over pneumonia. We take a lot of precautions.
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    CNN: What those who died of COVID-19 in the USA had in common.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/healt...ths/index.html
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    Guiana Space Centre in South America has shut down due to coronavirus threat.

    https://www.space.com/europe-spacepo...ronavirus.html
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

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    Quote Originally Posted by Noclevername View Post
    The virus can live in aerosol and on surfaces for hours, if you walk through someone's breath it can conceivably be carried on clothing.
    From the expert comments I have been hearing, the aerosols don’t really work that way. They’re saying it is primarily an issue for health workers. If a nearby infected person coughs on you, that would be a significant concern, and there are apparently certain medical procedures that can make aerosols more likely, but just walking around at work or a store isn’t a big concern. Much bigger is coming in close contact with an infected person or touching a surface they recently touched, then touching your face, especially near eyes, mouth or nose.

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    U.S. gov't. warns pandemic crisis could last 18 months, come in multiple waves.

    https://thehill.com/policy/healthcar...-months-report
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    Quote Originally Posted by Van Rijn View Post
    As a general rule, my clothes aren’t coming into contact with objects or people when I go out. My hands and my shoes do come into contact with objects, but rarely with people, especially these days. Generally they are keeping a few feet away at minimum right now.
    I've been seeing advice on disinfecting your phone. Why do I need to? No one touches it but me.

    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    Guiana Space Centre in South America has shut down due to coronavirus threat.

    https://www.space.com/europe-spacepo...ronavirus.html
    I've been wondering when this would start affecting space exploration.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
    I've been seeing advice on disinfecting your phone. Why do I need to? No one touches it but me
    I don’t know how likely the following situation is:

    1)Touch surface, contaminate hands.
    2) Touch phone, contaminate phone.
    3) Wash hands. Hands decontaminated.
    4) Touch phone, contaminate hands.


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  14. #1064
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    Quote Originally Posted by Extravoice View Post
    I don’t know how likely the following situation is:

    1)Touch surface, contaminate hands.
    2) Touch phone, contaminate phone.
    3) Wash hands. Hands decontaminated.
    4) Touch phone, contaminate hands.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Very feasible! Ditto face mask.
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

  15. #1065
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    Perspective again, in 2018 to 2019 there were 541589 deaths in England and Wales, up 50,000 on expectations. It was a bad year but it did not tank the economy and few people are aware of the numbers. Now we might face 50,000 to 500000, extra from this new virus and we will definitely hurt the economy. Will the various measures really save that many lives? Hand washing advice has already made a big difference, I read, and has not made any economical effect. Making the over 70s stay home makes precious little difference too. But closing small businesses, airlines and thus big business is, well, catastrophic. Lemmings over the cliff.
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

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    Quote Originally Posted by profloater View Post
    This https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4788752/
    Explains how viruses work and we can see why initial dose matters.
    One particle can get into one cell and bursts out about one million new virus particles. This is the first chance our immune system can react. So receiving a dose of millions in the first place, from a cough, say, Is a worse situation for an uneducated immune system. Washing hands will reduce the number of virus particles you are carrying and transferring to your face orifices.
    Good point. It also raises a somewhat desperate strategy that I have not heard discussed by experts-- instead of waiting for vaccines, intentionally apply a tiny dose of the living virus to people that will likely do well. I think it also is better to get it in the eyes than to breathe it into the lungs. It sounds desperate, and of dubious ethics, but if the goal is herd immunity among the young, and if they had minor initial doses and could be quarantined until they resolved, that might be the way to do it. I feel we should have more tracking that correlates disease outcomes with the likely manner in which the person was infected. For example, I would look to the fact that the 34-year-old hero doctor of Hunan, Li Wenliang, may have been infected by someone coughing on him, but shouldn't we know if that is the case or not? People aged 34 don't normally die from this, yet he is the most well-known figure in the epidemic, so isn't there something we should know about how he was exposed?

    It also seems like a crucial strategy should be separating the young from the old. I don't know why no one is talking about this at all-- we are hearing about old people staying home, but isn't that assuming all old people live alone? Are there not parents of teenagers who are 60, or grandparents living with kids? What good does it do for grandma to stay home when Bill the college student stops off at home during spring break?

    Also, I can't understand why all we are hearing is college classes going to online after spring break, and nothing about what students should do during spring break. Given that this is pretty much a perfect way for college-aged people to kill their parents and grandparents, why not tell the spring breakers they are not going to have so much fun this year? Shouldn't we be hearing this message from authorities-- not just work and take courses at home, not just don't go to restaurants or churches, but also exercise social distancing measures. It's spring break, how many drunk students are going to have four beers and forget all about coronavirus, do dumb things, and take the virus home to mom and dad? What good is online schooling going to do then?
    Last edited by Ken G; 2020-Mar-18 at 06:11 PM.

  17. #1067
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken G View Post
    I feel we should have more tracking that correlates disease outcomes with the likely manner in which the person was infected. For example, I would look to the fact that the 34-year-old hero doctor of Hunan, Li Wenliang, may have been infected by someone coughing on him, but shouldn't we know if that is the case or not? People aged 34 don't normally die from this, yet he is the most well-known figure in the epidemic, so isn't there something we should know about how he was exposed?
    More intense exposure?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_Wenliang

    Doctor Yu Chengbo, a Zhejiang medical expert sent to Wuhan, told media that although most young patients do not tend to develop severe conditions, the glaucoma patient whom Li saw on 8 January was a storekeeper at Huanan Seafood Market with a high viral load, which could have exacerbated Li's [existing] infection.[19]
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    10:55 am: Volunteer threatened with lawsuit after 3-D printing an $11,000 valve for $1


    In Italy, a good Samaritan could be facing legal action for providing a hospital with special valves needed for breathing equipment that keeps coronavirus patients alive, according to a report from Techdirt.


    Cristian Fracassi used a 3D printer to make the valves after the original manufacturer could not provide them due to overwhelming demand. Fracassi had to design the valves himself after the manufacturer refused to provide the 3D files, and he ultimately donated more than 100 valves to the hospital, each one costing him around $1 to make.


    The regular listing price of the valve is about $11,000, and the manufacturer has threatened to sue Fracassi for patent infringement, leaving him fearful of sharing the 3D file with other hospitals that need the valve. —Hannah Miller

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/coro...e-updates.html


    ETA:
    An important update on this subject:
    No threats of legal action:

    https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/17/2...ves-treatments
    Last edited by a1call; 2020-Mar-19 at 12:17 AM.

  19. #1069
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken G View Post
    Good point. It also raises a somewhat desperate strategy that I have not heard discussed by experts-- instead of waiting for vaccines, intentionally apply a tiny dose of the living virus to people that will likely do well. I think it also is better to get it in the eyes than to breathe it into the lungs. It sounds desperate, and of dubious ethics, but if the goal is herd immunity among the young, and if they had minor initial doses and could be quarantined until they resolved, that might be the way to do it. I feel we should have more tracking that correlates disease outcomes with the likely manner in which the person was infected. For example, I would look to the fact that the 34-year-old hero doctor of Hunan, Li Wenliang, may have been infected by someone coughing on him, but shouldn't we know if that is the case or not? People aged 34 don't normally die from this, yet he is the most well-known figure in the epidemic, so isn't there something we should know about how he was exposed?

    It also seems like a crucial strategy should be separating the young from the old. I don't know why no one is talking about this at all-- we are hearing about old people staying home, but isn't that assuming all old people live alone? Are there not parents of teenagers who are 60, or grandparents living with kids? What good does it do for grandma to stay home when Bill the college student stops off at home during spring break?

    Also, I can't understand why all we are hearing is college classes going to online after spring break, and nothing about what students should do during spring break. Given that this is pretty much a perfect way for college-aged people to kill their parents and grandparents, why not tell the spring breakers they are not going to have so much fun this year? Shouldn't we be hearing this message from authorities-- not just work and take courses at home, not just don't go to restaurants or churches, but also exercise social distancing measures. It's spring break, how many drunk students are going to have four beers and forget all about coronavirus, do dumb things, and take the virus home to mom and dad? What good is online schooling going to do then?
    I noticed that high beer drinking countries, with an average of about 6 to 12 ounces per day, have a much lower death rate, and I noticed that countries that eat legumes in a significant quantity have much higher death rates. The areas south of about the 30 parallel were excluded because it looks like sunshine or warm weather have much lower death and incidence rates. It would be nice if more data was included about each patient so ethnic or cuisine practices could be analyzed for affects. I know I am giving up anything with soluble fiber because of the bean thing. And I'm definitely drinking a beer a day.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

  20. #1070
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    I noticed that high beer drinking countries, with an average of about 6 to 12 ounces per day, have a much lower death rate, and I noticed that countries that eat legumes in a significant quantity have much higher death rates. The areas south of about the 30 parallel were excluded because it looks like sunshine or warm weather have much lower death and incidence rates. It would be nice if more data was included about each patient so ethnic or cuisine practices could be analyzed for affects. I know I am giving up anything with soluble fiber because of the bean thing. And I'm definitely drinking a beer a day.
    I'm sorry but I think that is a really iffy way of thinking about it. For a couple of reasons. One is that the death rate has fluctuated over time in various countries. In fact, the death rate is a really dodgy statistic because although we know the number of deaths, we don't really know the number of infections. A country that does a lot of tests (like South Korea) is going to have a lower death rate than one that does few tests (like the US), because you have many fewer undetected cases. Another is that there is not (in my mind) logical mechanism that would explain why drinking beer rather than wine (like in France and Italy) or not drinking alcohol at all (like in Iran) would make one less vulnerable to a viral infection. And then lastly, I think that there is a commonality among some of the places with low rates (like Northern Europe): people there (like in Japan) are less "touchy" than people in Latin countries. So it could be that they get less heavy exposure and hence there are fewer serious cases. Also, there is the issue of the lag between infections and deaths. The death rate should rise somewhat after the epidemic gets going, because of the time lag between diagnosis and death.

    Also (and I say this as someone who drinks alcohol), there are health risks to drinking alcohol, so drinking it for a very iffy possible health benefit seems unwise to me. Likewise with avoiding beans. Plus, just as a side mention, apparently about 30 people died in Iran because a rumor spread that drinking alcohol (illegal there) will stop you from getting the virus, and so they home made alcohol with methanol rather than ethanol, and died from methanol poisoning.

    ETA: Incidentally, I usually drink wine, not beer, and have no intention to switch.
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  21. #1071
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    I'm sorry but I think that is a really iffy way of thinking about it. For a couple of reasons. One is that the death rate has fluctuated over time in various countries. In fact, the death rate is a really dodgy statistic because although we know the number of deaths, we don't really know the number of infections. A country that does a lot of tests (like South Korea) is going to have a lower death rate than one that does few tests (like the US), because you have many fewer undetected cases. Another is that there is not (in my mind) logical mechanism that would explain why drinking beer rather than wine (like in France and Italy) or not drinking alcohol at all (like in Iran) would make one less vulnerable to a viral infection. And then lastly, I think that there is a commonality among some of the places with low rates (like Northern Europe): people there (like in Japan) are less "touchy" than people in Latin countries. So it could be that they get less heavy exposure and hence there are fewer serious cases. Also, there is the issue of the lag between infections and deaths. The death rate should rise somewhat after the epidemic gets going, because of the time lag between diagnosis and death.

    Also (and I say this as someone who drinks alcohol), there are health risks to drinking alcohol, so drinking it for a very iffy possible health benefit seems unwise to me. Likewise with avoiding beans. Plus, just as a side mention, apparently about 30 people died in Iran because a rumor spread that drinking alcohol (illegal there) will stop you from getting the virus, and so they home made alcohol with methanol rather than ethanol, and died from methanol poisoning.

    ETA: Incidentally, I usually drink wine, not beer, and have no intention to switch.
    There are reasons beer could work. An ingredient in hops, the xanthohumol turns up the interferon system to fight many types of viral infections. A half of beer was the average in countries, per capita that showed a difference. There are reasons that beans could make problems worse. The soluble fiber in legumes, is metabolized in the gut to produce butyrate, which turns down the interferon system to fight viral infections.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

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    Gotten a little closer to home; that's where I'll be working from, after today.

    Mandated by my employer, cleared with the customer whose site I've been working at.


    Tomorrow is my 50th birthday. My mates wanted to take me out on the town (just a restaurant really). I think that's off.
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  23. #1073
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    Quote Originally Posted by Noclevername View Post
    Yes, that's what I was wondering. Had Li initially received a minor exposure, perhaps by rubbing his eyes, it seems likely he would still be here today. I can't help wondering if this is not a significant fact that is being overlooked because it seems too risky. But if 34 year olds simply don't die unless they get a high viral load, it is tempting to imagine that they could be protected by being given a minor exposure. Or if that is too radical, at least have them wear masks-- elderly people might die with any level of infection, but the young seem most important to avoid a heavy load since they can handle a small one. If it seems risky to have intentional exposure, think how much riskier it is to let college students get drunk and cavort around the way they are doing this spring break in beach towns that have not closed their festivities, even if they have their restaurants. It's really obvious those students will now go home, since their dorms are closed, and kill some of their parents or grandparents-- all while thinking "it's just a flu, no biggie," or, "I couldn't have it, I don't show any symptoms other than this minor cough." Partly because that was the initial word that came out through some governmentally approved sources-- stressing the importance of not overreacting to something that can't happen here.

    It seems all too clear that what we are seeing here is "what fools we mortals be." People seem to be unable to accept drastic changes in their lifestyle until it is proven to them that is necessary. Unfortunately, coronavirus doesn't prove itself a threat until the horse is out of the barn, since it is contagious long before anyone knows you have it. So unbelievably, even though in the US we had a few weeks warning that Italy never got, we still seem determined to make all the same mistakes anyway.

    It also didn't help that the US Surgeon General seems to be a complete idiot. About ten days ago, he said that there would be a million coronavirus tests available in about a week, but that never happened, and even today it is virtually impossible to get a test if all you have are suspicious symptoms (exactly the people who need to be quarantined-- but they are merely being asked to self-quarantine, a tenuous request without the weight of an actual test result!). Also at that time, the Surgeon General actually said that the coronavirus infections were following a similar track as the common flu, something he was "happy to see." Since then, I have not seen him make any public statements at all, it is as though he has fallen off the face of the Earth. Luckily, the word now is coming from other doctors who have some idea what they are talking about. But is it already too late to avoid Italy on an even larger scale? Officials here have closed almost every place that people congregate, yet where we do see people, there is no effort at all to maintain a 6 foot distance, it's simply not a thing here at all. Many people are working from home, but unless the young do a better job of isolating themselves from the old, they are simply not acting responsibly enough to avoid overloading hospitals that are hard to get beds in at the best of times. Frankly, I'd rather see loud speakers reminding people to maintain 6 foot separations at all times, even though it sounds like something out of 12 Monkeys or Brazil. The idea that we could have been warned by Italy and still not taken the appropriate steps really riles me, as you can tell. Thank goodness for the internet-- it is really the only source where sensible warnings are coming out, as the official word is always playing catch-up after the fact.
    Last edited by Ken G; 2020-Mar-19 at 04:56 AM.

  24. #1074
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    China today has no internal new cases, only cases from recent travellers. Remarkable result. Given the numbers there cannot be herd immunity there, so will there be a second wave? Here in UK the schools close tomorrow but still little testing. China announces new faster test. Our major supermarket locally virtually all shelves stripped, so we are well into the panic buying phase. I guess London is worse, a third of all UK cases there.
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

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    Quote Originally Posted by profloater View Post
    Our major supermarket locally virtually all shelves stripped, so we are well into the panic buying phase. I guess London is worse, a third of all UK cases there.
    I’m curious if the panic buying will die down soon, of if it will be an ongoing problem. For the most part, I can last for weeks staying at home, but there are a couple of items I would like to get in a week or so, and then there is the concern of whether the panic buying will really be done when my frozen and shelf stable food is used up. Only two options then: Stores need to sell at higher prices or there needs to be a serious rationing plan. I have heard some rumbling about authorities coming down hard on price gougers, but personally I would be willing to pay, say, double for high demand items until people stop panic buying. Realistically, the panic will mostly go away once people see the shelves stocked again, and prices could then drop back to near normal.

    Then too, in a few weeks, if the disease goes the way I expect, I am going to be much less inclined to go to multiple stores, or even one store for food and supplies. There are a variety of delivery options, and that can limit physical interaction, but that can only work if they have products to deliver.

    I’m frankly surprised I haven’t heard more about work on implementing rationing and planning for more deliveries (aside from Amazon’s hiring).

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  26. #1076
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    We have a store called Iceland, only frozen food. Now OAP s can shop at 8 am. Picture queues of elderly folk in the rain, waiting, coughing, cheerful enough.
    That will self limit, we have small deep freezers mostly, soon full of bread and fish.
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    There are reasons beer could work. An ingredient in hops, the xanthohumol turns up the interferon system to fight many types of viral infections. A half of beer was the average in countries, per capita that showed a difference. There are reasons that beans could make problems worse. The soluble fiber in legumes, is metabolized in the gut to produce butyrate, which turns down the interferon system to fight viral infections.
    If you are joking then please make that clear. If you are serious, then stop; the last thing this thread needs is wild speculation.
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  28. #1078
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    Has anybody seen this? Short chain fatty acid butyrate promotes virus infection by repressing interferon stimulated genes

    https://www.researchgate.net/scienti...63_Lizhi_Zhang
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    An article with a headline I don't dare repeat in this thread. Give it a look, and think about it. True or not?

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/the-...isor-says.html
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    As long as the news is full of eye-exploding news...

    “We are officially declaring that the economy has fallen into a recession ... joining the rest of the world, and it is a deep plunge,” Bank of America U.S. economist Michelle Meyer wrote in a note. “Jobs will be lost, wealth will be destroyed and confidence depressed.”

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/bank...destroyed.html
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

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