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Thread: Disease and pandemics thread (because it's science)

  1. #841
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    Which peroxide, and for what? Hydrogen peroxide is not something I'd apply repeatedly to skin.
    Hydrogen peroxide did clean my injuries after I was bitten by a pit bull few years ago. Not very fond of them, but I won't derail this thread.
    Do good work. óVirgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  2. #842
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    Hydrogen peroxide did clean my injuries after I was bitten by a pit bull few years ago.
    One-off applications, OK--but it's pretty damaging to tissue, and I imagine whoever was treating your injury washed it off with copious saline irrigation afterwards. It's just not the sort of stuff you want on your skin with any frequency.

    Grant Hutchison

  3. #843
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    We had lots of errands to run today, and ďate outĒ for both breakfast and lunch. Good numbers of customers. So people may be panic buying hand sanitizer, but not yet avoiding restaurants in this area.


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    Northern Italy has been placed under almost complete lockdown (news in Italian only so far: https://www.repubblica.it/cronaca/20...ce_-250570150/).
    Lombardy and 11 other provinces affected.
    Movement blocked, only allowed in case of emergency. Closed gyms, swimming pools and spas, museums, cultural centers, cinemas, theaters and ski resorts.

    EDIT: Just a draft law at the moment. Not clear when it comes into effect.

    All flights in and out of Milan (Malpensa) airport being stopped. Someone on Twitter says:
    Flight status on those still on the ground at Malpensa have changed to “unknown” which I’ve never seen before
    Last edited by Strange; 2020-Mar-07 at 09:52 PM. Reason: Update

  5. #845
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    One-off applications, OK--but it's pretty damaging to tissue, and I imagine whoever was treating your injury washed it off with copious saline irrigation afterwards. It's just not the sort of stuff you want on your skin with any frequency.
    Uh, that was me treating me, as no one else was around, so... have to do a lot better next time. Oh, man. Thank you for the heads up.
    Do good work. óVirgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  6. #846
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    Uh, that was me treating me, as no one else was around, so... have to do a lot better next time. Oh, man. Thank you for the heads up.
    I had a link to a major hospital sometime back. For home first aid they recommend a lot of flushing with water with water and soap around the wound, betadine perhaps if on the go, though not for extensive wounds. But avoid alcohol or hydrogen peroxide in a wound because they can cause a significant amount of tissue damage, and actually slow healing.

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    Do we have a running tally of how many people have died as a result of the lockdowns? I can't imagine that restricting people's access to food and medical aid has been a camping trip.
    "Occam" is the name of the alien race that will enslave us all eventually. And they've got razors for hands. I don't know if that's true but it seems like the simplest answer."

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    Slightly off-topic - I donated blood yesterday.

    I usually wait until the blood drive comes to my office complex, but made it a point to donate before the virus spreads into this region.
    Not that I think COVID-19 will increase the need for blood, but I figure donations will drop markedly during an outbreak.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Extravoice View Post
    We had lots of errands to run today, and “ate out” for both breakfast and lunch. Good numbers of customers. So people may be panic buying hand sanitizer, but not yet avoiding restaurants in this area.


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    We were out for lunch and some shopping. The restaurant was fairly busy but it's the type of place that would tend to have a wait after church on Sunday, and didn't. Stores looked pretty normal.
    I had realized yesterday that I hadn't stocked up supplies for my wife's lattes. That's taken care of now.
    Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt.

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    Gasoline has fallen in upstate South Carolina to $1.899 per unleaded regular gallon, cash or debit. It is very rare for prices to be this low.
    Do good work. óVirgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  11. #851
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    Gasoline has fallen in upstate South Carolina to $1.899 per unleaded regular gallon, cash or debit. It is very rare for prices to be this low.
    A new price war:

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/08/inves...bia/index.html

    Partly virus related, partly Russia wanting to drive out American shale oil producers that donít have pockets deep enough to keep going (since shale oil is relatively expensive to produce). Interesting the odd ramifications a disease can have. Usually in movies on related subjects you would see the prices go up. Also will be interesting to see how much effect that will have on California (we use a special fuel blend to minimize smog and limited refinery capacity has a major effect on price as do additional taxes over what most states have).

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  12. #852
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    From Matador Travel Security
    UPDATED March 9 2020

    Beginning this week, we ask that all employees carefully reconsider any travel plans, both domestic and international. Travellers who are feeling unwell or affected by any flu-like symptoms should absolutely not travel, regardless of trip criticality. If a trip is not essential at this time, the best course of action is to delay it. If a trip is critical for your business and cannot be postponed or otherwise handled using Teams or other technology, then ensure you have the most up-to-date information before you travel. Flying point to point is preferable to having flights connecting in these locations. You should consider the ramifications of being stopped during an airport temperature check or the unexpected unavailability of travel (cancelled flights, trains, etc.) as governments take more precautions. For a comprehensive list of current screenings and travel restrictions, including flight reductions and suspensions, please follow this link and review as often as necessary if planning travel: https://pandemic.internationalsos.co...-and-screening. ​​​​​​​Travellers affected by such restrictions should reconfirm their itineraries, visa status and the overall feasibility of travel prior to departure.

    Traveller temperature and medical screenings are occurring in airports and other border entry points worldwide. There is no consistent guidance as to what the screening protocols are in each country, nor the consequences of being suspected as symptomatic of an illness. Travellers manifesting any flu-like or respiratory symptoms may be required to have a medical examination and risk being quarantined pending evaluation.

    If you have recently visited an area that may have put you at risk of exposure to COVID-19, you should ask your Human Resource Leader or someone from Matador Security about appropriate next steps. It may make sense to work from home for a period of time. The key is to be proactive and well-informed.

    Latest developments:

    The global number of reported infections now stands at 110,588 with 3,841 fatalities.

    In Europe the country with the largest number of cases is Italy, where the numbers have more than doubled over the weekend to 7,375 reported cases with 366 fatalities. Effective March 8, the following areas have been designated as quarantined areas, impacting some 16 million people. Nobody will be allowed to move in or out of the designated territories, although exceptions will be made for reasons of health, professional needs and "exceptional" cases:
    - Lombardy region: entire region, all provinces
    - Piedmont: provinces of Alessandria, Asti, Novara, Verbano Cusio Ossola, and Vercelli;
    - Veneto: provinces of Padua, Treviso, and Venice;
    - Emilia Romagna: (provinces of Modena, Parma, Piacenza, Reggio Emilia, and Rimini;
    - Marche: province of Pesaro Urbino;

    Saudi Arabia: On March 9 the Authorities announced additional travel restrictions and controls to those announced over the last weekend, suspending air and sea traffic between the Kingdom and nine countries, namely the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, South Korea and Italy. In addition, all foreign nationals who have been in these countries in the past 14 days will be barred from entry into Saudi Arabia. The entry ban applies to all foreign nationals, regardless of their visa type. According to the latest information, there is no option of obtaining a certificate of health exempting the traveller from this. Land crossings remain restricted to commercial trucks only.

    Additional measures remaining in place include the suspension of entry for tourist visa holders from Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, China (including Hong Kong and Macao SARs), India, Indonesia, Iran, Italy, Japan, Kazakhstan, Lebanon, Malaysia, Pakistan, the Philippines, Singapore, Somalia, South Korea, Syria, Thailand, Uzbekistan, Vietnam and Yemen. Entry is also suspended for any non-residents who have travelled to these countries in the last 14 days unless they can provide an official certificate of health issued a maximum of 20 hours prior to the passenger departing for the country – apart from the nine countries included in the 9 March directive. The Saudi embassy in the relevant country of origin should be consulted for details of the specific laboratory approved for this examination.

    Travellers who have been in China (including Hong Kong and Macao SARs) in the last 14 days will not be able to transit Saudi Arabia. Entry for the Umrah pilgrimage or to visit the Prophet's Mosque in Medina (Medina province) remains suspended. Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nationals must use their passport to enter or exit Saudi Arabia, rather than their national identity card.

    Cases in Germany and France have doubled or tripled respectively over this past weekend.

    In Asia the largest cluster outside China is in South Korea, with 7,478 cases and 53 fatalities. In the Middle East the largest cluster remains in Iran, with 6,566 cases and 194 fatalities.

    In North America there have so far been 564 recorded cases with 22 fatalities in the United States, 132 cases in Canada with 0 fatalities and 7 in Mexico also with 0 fatalities.

    The total recorded cases in China currently stands at 80,735 with 3,120 fatalities. Based on official figures the number of new infections and fatalities has slowed significantly this week. According to the U.S. Department of State, as national and local authorities in China continue efforts to contain the spread of COVID-19, effective immediately “cities including Beijing and Shanghai, as well as Guangdong and Sichuan Provinces will require people who have recently visited countries with “severe outbreaks” (including South Korea, Japan, Iran and Italy) to be quarantined for 14 days in a Chinese facility, greatly restricting or eliminating the passengers ability to leave quarantine during the 14-day observation period.”

    Outside of China the number of confirmed cases now stands at 29,853 with 721 fatalities in 102 countries and territories:
    Europe and CIS: Albania (new), Andorra, Armenia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Faroe Islands, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Gibraltar, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, the Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, San Marino, Serbia, Slovenia, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine, United Kingdom (including Northern Ireland), and Vatican City.
    Middle East: Afghanistan, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
    Africa and North Africa: Algeria, Cameroon, Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Togo and Tunisia.
    Asia Pacific and South Asia: Australia, Bangladesh (new), Bhutan, Cambodia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Macau, Malaysia, Maldives, Nepal, New Zealand, Pakistan, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam.
    Americas and Caribbean: Argentina, Brazil, Canada, ​​​​​​​Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, French Guiana, Martinique, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Saint Barthelemy, Saint Martin and the United States.
    ​​​
    Updated figures can be found on Johns Hopkins University's coronavirus tracking map.​​​​​​​ For a different dashboard of impacted countries and regions, this Channel News Asia map may be useful.

    Resident employees and returning travellers alike should understand exactly what self-quarantine involves by reviewing the national guidelines publicised in their countries. An example of such guidance from the UK's National Health Service can be reviewed by clicking this link.
    That first sentence affects me directly as I was recently assigned to a project that would have me "commuting" between Houston and Wilmington, DE.
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  13. #853
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    Starting today, you will notice that CNN is using the term pandemic to describe the current coronavirus outbreak. It is not a decision we take lightly. While we know it sounds alarming, it should not cause panic.
    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/09/healt...pta/index.html

    The specific criteria for a pandemic are not universally defined, but there are three general criteria: a virus that can cause illness or death; sustained person-to-person transmission of that virus; and evidence of spread throughout the world.
    Seems like we've met those criteria.
    Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by ignorance or stupidity.
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  14. #854
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    Confusing things, one or more types of flu are passing thru my workplace, including a stomach version with all the special effects.
    Do good work. óVirgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

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    Also, office staff is reading all possible rumors online in a misguided hunt for truth, leading to bouts of near panic. A Covid case has appeared in Spartanburg, close by, making everything crazy. Hard to work in this atmosphere.
    Do good work. óVirgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

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    What I don't understand is, why is a list of precautions that all people are expected to follow not being clearly advertised everywhere? So far, all I hear is "wash your hands, and maybe don't fly unless you have to, but don't worry the threat is currently low." This seems entirely inadequate, it would be like if the weather forecast says a hurricane will arrive in two days so be sure not to wear a hat that could blow off your head, and remember that the threat is currently low because there's not a cloud in the sky. Also, for a long time there were no confirmed cases in my state, so every article about the virus made sure to mention that. That cannot be said any more so what good did it do then? A lot of effort is going into not causing panic, but of course the way to do that is with actionable information, not false assurances. Saying "the threat is currently low" is the way to postpone panic, not avoid it. I feel like our entire strategy is around postponement, rather than preparation. What are the steps we need everyone to take, and how can we get that word out in as clear a way as possible? Are people going to make the hard self-isolation decisions if they keep getting told "there's nothing to worry about, your chances of getting it are low?" We know the draconian steps being taken in China now, and we know what they've had to do in Italy. There is only one question for the rest of the world-- what should you do now so you aren't in that same boat soon, or is there really nothing you can do but wait for it to happen, combating only the panic but not the virus?

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    How close is Spartanburg? We’ve had at least two cases within a half hour drive and one death, all within a half hour drive. I have no illusion it will remain that limited or distant.

    "The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is hard to verify their authenticity." ó Abraham Lincoln

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim View Post
    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/09/healt...pta/index.html

    Seems like we've met those criteria.
    The pandemic is here, it's just not evenly distributed. The problem is with the "sustained person-to-person transmission", which is occurring in some parts of the world and not others. When such transmission is not sustained, containment measures are appropriate; when it is sustained, delay measures are appropriate. It's up to each country and region to decide when to make the switch to the more economically and socially disruptive delay measures. Hence the WHO's reluctance to describe this outbreak as a pandemic until it meets the transmission criteria over most of the globe, because they do not wish to trigger early and inappropriate switches from containment to delay.

    Grant Hutchison

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    Quote Originally Posted by Van Rijn View Post
    How close is Spartanburg? We’ve had at least two cases within a half hour drive and one death, all within a half hour drive. I have no illusion it will remain that limited or distant.
    Spartanburg is a half-hour drive. nothing to do but work and wait, and read astronomy.
    Do good work. óVirgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken G View Post
    What I don't understand is, why is a list of precautions that all people are expected to follow not being clearly advertised everywhere? So far, all I hear is "wash your hands, and maybe don't fly unless you have to, but don't worry the threat is currently low."
    What I have heard: Wash your hands regularly, watch your hygiene generally, try to avoid touching your face (that is a hard one for me), donít bother with masks, consider limiting social contact where reasonable (including limiting unnecessary travel), if you get sick isolate yourself and if you need medical help due to disease CALL FIRST, donít drive to the doctor or emergency. And really important: Donít panic. Even if you get Covid-19, most likely youíll get over it just fine.

    Now, I have seen that from various sources. It doesnít seem to me to be hidden information. There is a concern that we canít discuss here in detail that a certain part of the U.S. government might be playing it down a bit more than some would like, but the information is out there, and there is the real issue that some are panicking, and that is dangerous too.

    Also, for a long time there were no confirmed cases in my state, so every article about the virus made sure to mention that. That cannot be said any more so what good did it do then?
    It kept people from doing silly things, and it was entirely possible it could be contained so it was reasonable to say it. See SARS for example.

    I feel like our entire strategy is around postponement, rather than preparation. What are the steps we need everyone to take, and how can we get that word out in as clear a way as possible? Are people going to make the hard self-isolation decisions if they keep getting told "there's nothing to worry about, your chances of getting it are low?"
    I am hearing what the public should do about self isolation, and it is pretty straightforward: Donít take chances and call your doctor if you have any questions, or if you need help. I am leaving it up to the professionals to take care of the medical and organizational steps. On my own, I have stocked up a bit on food and supplies, but not excessively so.

    Ultimately, there is a practical limit to what we can do to prepare.

    I have had medical conditions and procedures that were riskier than this disease appears to be, and I have already learned that dwelling on what might happen is pointless. Do what you can to stay healthy and leave it at that.

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  21. #861
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    Spartanburg is a half-hour drive. nothing to do but work and wait, and read astronomy.
    Heck, the Feds are flying 30-plus folks from the cruise ship to an Air Force Base near me - for screening and further processing as warranted.

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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    The pandemic is here, it's just not evenly distributed. The problem is with the "sustained person-to-person transmission", which is occurring in some parts of the world and not others. When such transmission is not sustained, containment measures are appropriate; when it is sustained, delay measures are appropriate. It's up to each country and region to decide when to make the switch to the more economically and socially disruptive delay measures. Hence the WHO's reluctance to describe this outbreak as a pandemic until it meets the transmission criteria over most of the globe, because they do not wish to trigger early and inappropriate switches from containment to delay.
    Thatís an important distinction that I havenít heard. Perhaps for very brief interviews it requires too much time to address properly, especially when the media want to be first to cry ďWolfĒ, sometimes without the objective evidence.

    Iím a little surprised we donít see pandemic ratings like with hurricanes and tornadoes. The CFR ó Ro chart could illustrate each level perhaps. Itís use would seem helpful for the public far more than doctors, too minimize panic and hype.

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    Quote Originally Posted by George View Post
    That’s an important distinction that I haven’t heard. Perhaps for very brief interviews it requires too much time to address properly, especially when the media want to be first to cry “Wolf”, sometimes without the objective evidence.
    The Chief Medical Officers for the UK and Scotland have been doing a pretty good job at getting the message out, concerning the rationale behind the three-step "containment, delay, mitigation" approach to epidemics. It doesn't actually take long to summarize, and it does give people a handle on where we are and what we should be doing now, and what will happen next.

    Grant Hutchison

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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    The Chief Medical Officers for the UK and Scotland have been doing a pretty good job at getting the message out, concerning the rationale behind the three-step "containment, delay, mitigation" approach to epidemics. It doesn't actually take long to summarize, and it does give people a handle on where we are and what we should be doing now, and what will happen next.
    I’ve not heard it here, but I don’t listen to much of it. I learn more general info here.

    I’m curious what a P1 to P5 pandemic scale might make, especially in this case for Covid-19? As in the hurricane scale, time will alter the rating for any given outbreak? It won’t shock me if Hollywood has used such a scheme in their pandemic movies.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken G View Post
    What I don't understand is, why is a list of precautions that all people are expected to follow not being clearly advertised everywhere?
    Not everywhere is the same. What you should do depends on local and personal circumstances.
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    This guide looks helpful.

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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    Hence the WHO's reluctance to describe this outbreak as a pandemic until it meets the transmission criteria over most of the globe, because they do not wish to trigger early and inappropriate switches from containment to delay.
    I would like to offer a third and fourth mode. The third could be called containment plus mental and physical preparation for the more aggressive mode. The attitude I'm seeing is not only hopefulness that it won't come to that (which seems like a false hope at this point), but even a kind of denial that it will, out of fear of creating panic. I don't see any preparation at all-- our local health clinic is not capable of testing for coronavirus, if you have suspicious symptoms they will literally send you home and just tell you to self-isolate, no effort to check that you are. The college students that live in dorms have no plan for how to initiate any kind of quarantine, and they have no idea if their dorm could be turned into a situation like the Diamond Princess because there is no information other than "we are watching the situation carefully, nothing for you to do but wash your hands and stay home if you get flulike symptoms, whatever that means." I feel there needs to be preparation for the more aggressive mode, it's not just an on-off switch. There won't be much warning when that switch flips-- people don't need to be caught by surprise the way they were in Japan and Italy. China had no choice but to be surprised, we don't have that excuse.

    The fourth mode could include intermediate steps, like forbidding students to be in school if they have a cough. Right now they are not allowed to have fever, but if the student doesn't self report it's hard to know they have fever. Would it be so hard to just say that school's are now cough-free environments, and change the rules accordingly? And anyone with a cough could be required to wear a mask outside, so others can know to steer clear of them. These are not draconian measures, but might reduce spread during that critical phase when the cases are not yet detected. It seems that this virus can go off like a bomb when the conditions are right, so I think there should be a third mode called "make the conditions less conducive for a rapid outbreak before we even know it's here." What do those precautions look like?
    Last edited by Ken G; 2020-Mar-09 at 07:35 PM.

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    Despite having survived the pandemic measles and mumps of the 1960s (and before), I'm reasonably concerned. Since I teach in a lab classroom, I'll get some decent liquid soap (which may be a contradiction in terms, but I'm not dealing with bars), and let the kids use one of the sinks to wash up. Maybe, if we're lucky, the school will fix the soap dispensers in the student bathrooms, but they won't replace the air dryers, which are mostly effective for spreading germs.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken G View Post
    I would like to offer a third mode, which is called containment plus mental and physical preparation for the more aggressive mode. The attitude I'm seeing is not only hopefulness that it won't come to that (which seems like a false hope at this point), but even a kind of denial that it will, out of fear of creating panic. I don't see any preparation at all-- our local health clinic is not capable of testing for coronavirus, if you have suspicious symptoms they will literally send you home and just tell you to self-isolate, no effort to check that you are. The college students that live in dorms have no plan for how to initiate any kind of quarantine, and they have no idea if their dorm could be turned into a situation like the Diamond Princess because there is no information other than "we are watching the situation carefully, nothing for you to do." I feel there needs to be preparation for the more aggressive mode, it's not just an on-off switch. There won't be much warning when that switch flips-- people don't need to be caught by surprise the way they were in Japan and Italy. China had no choice but to be surprised, we don't have that excuse.
    I can't comment on how the situation is being handled where you are.

    Grant Hutchison

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim View Post
    That first sentence affects me directly as I was recently assigned to a project that would have me "commuting" between Houston and Wilmington, DE.
    Based on corporate policy, my trip next week has been cancelled. I will telecommute.
    Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by ignorance or stupidity.
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    You know, the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common. They donít alter their views to fit the facts. They alter the facts to fit their views.
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