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Thread: Disease and pandemics thread (because it's science)

  1. #811
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    I agree with your formula Ken G but note that this number used to be above 20% when I started checking it around the end of January. I don't think the value has stabilized to be considered an actual rate at the moment. I think there are 2 factors affecting the varying nature of this value.
    * Only the severe cases were initially detected
    * Death occurs much faster than the recovery (on the average) after detection.
    Just my 2 cents worth.

  2. #812
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    The Atlantic finds that the coronavirus testing in the USA has been botched... badly. See their evidence.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/hea...ng/ar-BB10QiF4
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  3. #813
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    First presumptive cases of COVID-19 in South Carolina, where I live. Not the counties where I live, but it's surely gotten around by now. Meh.

    https://www.wltx.com/article/news/he...6-2720638b4b1b

    In related news, mass buying of toilet paper, antivirus hand soap, hand sanitizer, and bottled water is underway. My wife and I were at a local Wal-Mart and noticed the shortages. Despite this, people still crowd all the local restaurants.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  4. #814
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    Great, now I am being advised not to go out in public because I am over 60 and have chronic illnesses. Well, fine, I'll be a hermit and bother people online. As long as I get paid for it.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/06/healt...ing/index.html
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  5. #815
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    Quote Originally Posted by a1call View Post
    I agree with your formula Ken G but note that this number used to be above 20% when I started checking it around the end of January. I don't think the value has stabilized to be considered an actual rate at the moment. I think there are 2 factors affecting the varying nature of this value.
    * Only the severe cases were initially detected
    * Death occurs much faster than the recovery (on the average) after detection.
    Just my 2 cents worth.
    Yes I agree, the final CFR really isn't known yet and might well depend on how aggressive are the standard practices for testing.

  6. #816
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    Panic buying of hand sanitizer has reached South Carolina.
    I did notice that one of our supermarkets still has plenty of vodka.
    Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt.

  7. #817
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken G View Post
    Yes I agree, the final CFR really isn't known yet and might well depend on how aggressive are the standard practices for testing.
    Yes and other factors. A Drake-like equation for an overall Bio Hazard might be interesting to see.

    Part of my interest in this thread, besides the seriousness of it and my very limited knowledge of medicine that, perhaps due to age, i'm now interested, is being awakened to so many of the variables, like these...

    Deadliness of the virus
    R-naught
    Time to recognize a new virus
    Time to vaccine

    Accuracy of tests [Grant's earlier link on how these tests are used is very interesting as I expect many, like me, have assumed these to be like our use of litmus in chemistry class; like testing for Na by adding water.]
    Time to get tests to the labs.
    Time for labs to respond.
    Time to therapeutics
    Strength of therapeutics
    Stealth of the virus
    Ratio of patients to medical pros.
    Travel restrictions
    Animal sensitivity to being carriers
    Age of population
    Health of population
    Weather sensitivity of virus
    Weather sensitivity of people
    Time lags between infection and death
    Distribution of viral strains of different lethality
    Misc. social impediments (e.g. certain extreme religious views and self-governance of quarantines)


    The recovery ratio seems inadequate to use effectively, IMO. That ratio, for instance, for the US is > 100% and, as noted in a prior post, it is dropping (as expected) in China (~5.5%, 2.8% for the Diamond Princes with a CFR of only 0.9%. Recall that Wuhan's CFR was close to 5% but outside Hubei it was closer to 1%, and the number of new cases is way down, so it appears, at least, they have gotten a handle on tackling the spread of the disease.

    Of course, China's CFR value should begin to increase as they still have over 5k in the Serious/Critical category so with hardly any new cases the CFR number must increase. S. Korea, on the other hand, with the 2nd highest case number has a CFR of only 0.7%. That's encouraging. Perhaps they are overstating the case number.

    I suspect, though a guess, that the CFR for China will resolve to a value around 4. The final overall CFR is bound to be a number below 4 since more time has helped others outside Hubei province.
    Last edited by George; 2020-Mar-07 at 05:38 AM.
    We know time flies, we just can't see its wings.

  8. #818
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
    I did notice that one of our supermarkets still has plenty of vodka.
    Are they out of soap?
    We know time flies, we just can't see its wings.

  9. #819
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    Quote Originally Posted by George View Post
    Are they out of soap?
    The one I went to had plenty of soap. I didn’t buy any (I still have a good supply at home) but I was curious. It’s both amusing and sad there are reports of people making homemade hand sanitizer using dubious online recipes when they could just use soap.

    But I wouldn’t be surprised if there is panic buying of soap in a week or two.

    "The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is hard to verify their authenticity." — Abraham Lincoln

    I say there is an invisible elf in my backyard. How do you prove that I am wrong?

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  10. #820
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
    I did notice that one of our supermarkets still has plenty of vodka.
    In a story I heard about homemade hand sanitizer, they mentioned that alcohol content had to be 60% or above, while vodka is usually 40% or so.

    "The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is hard to verify their authenticity." — Abraham Lincoln

    I say there is an invisible elf in my backyard. How do you prove that I am wrong?

    The Leif Ericson Cruiser

  11. #821
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    If you look at the ratio of Deaths over Total Confirmed Infections for each country with recorded fatalities you can order and group the results.

    In the global top 10 the top group is comprised of Iraq and South Korea with current ratio's greater than 6%. The middle group currently consists of Italy, China, the US, Australia, Iran, and all have a spread of +/- 1% around the current global average ratio of 3.4%. The last group has ratio's >1% lower than the global average.

    Movements within these groupings in the longer term would indicate the success/failure of regional containment/treatment measures and identify area's requiring further assistance.

  12. #822
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    Quote Originally Posted by George View Post
    Are they out of soap?
    Amazingly, our Wal-Mart had PLENTY of soap. We bought some (a six-pack) as we were running out.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  13. #823
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
    I did notice that one of our supermarkets still has plenty of vodka.
    Alcoholic drinks are for killing the virus internally.

    Oh, they don't? Well, ignoring it internally, then.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  14. #824
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    Quote Originally Posted by Van Rijn View Post
    The one I went to had plenty of soap. I didn’t buy any (I still have a good supply at home) but I was curious. It’s both amusing and sad there are reports of people making homemade hand sanitizer using dubious online recipes when they could just use soap.

    But I wouldn’t be surprised if there is panic buying of soap in a week or two.
    Hand sanitizers are handy (sorry) for use in the car or if you have a bunch of kids running around places such as parks or stores where a bathroom may not be readily available. Why are the recipes dubious? The recipes I've seen online are simple and seem to have a valid ratio; 2 parts 70% (or more) isopropyl alcohol to one part aloe vera gel. Plus a few drops of optional essential oil for scent.

  15. #825
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    Quote Originally Posted by George View Post
    Are they out of soap?
    Soap is available, but the shelves are emptier than usual. They are starting to limit purchase quantities.

    Quote Originally Posted by Van Rijn View Post
    In a story I heard about homemade hand sanitizer, they mentioned that alcohol content had to be 60% or above, while vodka is usually 40% or so.
    Right, you need Everclear. I didn't look closely enough to see if they had it.
    Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt.

  16. #826
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    Quote Originally Posted by schlaugh View Post
    The recipes I've seen online are simple and seem to have a valid ratio; 2 parts 70% (or more) isopropyl alcohol to one part aloe vera gel. Plus a few drops of optional essential oil for scent.
    I'd be tempted not to dilute a known antiviral agent (isopropyl alcohol) below its recommended effective concentration (60%) using a preparation that may or may not contain a virus suppressing concentration of aloe vera.

    Grant Hutchison

  17. #827
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    New tragedy in China, the collapse of a quarantine hotel. They say there are 70 people trapped, but 70 doesn't collapse a hotel. I have to say I'm getting a bit concerned that the numbers we are getting from China might not be at all accurate. Is there any kind of independent confirmation? What's odd about this disease is that sometimes it seems to go off like a bomb in a small region, is it possible that there are certain modes of contagion that are especially dangerous? Like, why Italy?

  18. #828
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    Perhaps this is relevant and then perhaps not:
    Cheek kissing is another common type of greeting in Italy, as it is in most European countries.
    https://www.dummies.com/languages/it...and-good-byes/

  19. #829
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    I'd be tempted not to dilute a known antiviral agent (isopropyl alcohol) below its recommended effective concentration (60%) using a preparation that may or may not contain a virus suppressing concentration of aloe vera.
    Perhaps a simple 2-step procedure would be best — disinfect + ointment. I heard that dry skin has skin crevices allowing homes for microbial bad guys.

    I have eczema. After three dermatologists, one giving me coal tar, I learned from my GP, at my request for a blood test, that I was low on B and D. Taking the vitamins greatly helped but I’ve found that by washing followed by Neosporin that my affected skin is no longer a big deal. [ I had tried other creames for eczema.]

    I’m a fan of aloe vera, which is easy to grow here in Texas. So alcohol and aloe Vera ointment applied separately might be appropriate.

    Also, vitamins without excess should be a routine, too, no doubt.

    iPad
    Last edited by George; 2020-Mar-07 at 05:06 PM.
    We know time flies, we just can't see its wings.

  20. #830
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken G View Post
    New tragedy in China, the collapse of a quarantine hotel. They say there are 70 people trapped, but 70 doesn't collapse a hotel. I have to say I'm getting a bit concerned that the numbers we are getting from China might not be at all accurate. Is there any kind of independent confirmation? What's odd about this disease is that sometimes it seems to go off like a bomb in a small region, is it possible that there are certain modes of contagion that are especially dangerous? Like, why Italy?
    CNN: Coronavirus quarantine hotel collapses, trapping 70 people
    From CNN’s Yong Xiong in Shanghai
    A hotel building in south-eastern China's Quanzhou city collapsed Saturday night, according to the city government statement. Several state media, including People’s Daily, confirmed the hotel has been used as coronavirus quarantine center. Around 70 people were trapped in the building and 33 people have been rescued from the debris by 9:30 p.m. local time, the statement said. It is unknown if there are any fatalities and why the building was collapsed
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  21. #831
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    Look for falling gas/petrol prices near you, as demand falls because of COVID-19:

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/06/busin...ray/index.html
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  22. #832
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    Quote Originally Posted by George View Post
    I’m a fan of aloe vera, which is easy to grow here in Texas. So alcohol and aloe Vera ointment applied separately might be appropriate.
    Don’t use too much, or ar least use other moisturizers. A few years ago I had to spend a few days in a hospital bed without getting up and used an alcohol based hand sanitizer. I don’t think I used it too often, but about a week after I got home both hands, front and back, started peeling similar to a sunburn. It didn’t hurt, but was a bit annoying. I stick with soap and water for the most part now.

    "The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is hard to verify their authenticity." — Abraham Lincoln

    I say there is an invisible elf in my backyard. How do you prove that I am wrong?

    The Leif Ericson Cruiser

  23. #833
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    Australian doctor with coronavirus symptoms continues to treat patients, possibly infecting up to 70. He tested positive later. One bad apple in a bushel of good ones.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...eeing-patients
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  24. #834
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    Quote Originally Posted by Van Rijn View Post
    Don’t use too much, or ar least use other moisturizers. A few years ago I had to spend a few days in a hospital bed without getting up and used an alcohol based hand sanitizer. I don’t think I used it too often, but about a week after I got home both hands, front and back, started peeling similar to a sunburn. It didn’t hurt, but was a bit annoying. I stick with soap and water for the most part now.
    I use what’s at the sink, so soap and water. But I will use the alcohol dispensers at work and on the road, but only if my hands have been more places than normal.

    My wife and I are at Snooze for breakfast. I will recommend they provide a large dispenser to augment their healthy benefits claims. If the case rate accelerates here in town it will be a favored restaurant in my opinion.
    Last edited by George; 2020-Mar-07 at 06:08 PM.
    We know time flies, we just can't see its wings.

  25. #835
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    My wife heard that peroxide is best. Seems right, is it?
    We know time flies, we just can't see its wings.

  26. #836
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    Quote Originally Posted by George View Post
    My wife heard that peroxide is best. Seems right, is it?
    It's certainly a known disinfectant. But I doubt it's notably more effective at hand sanitizing than conventional methods.
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

  27. #837
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    Quote Originally Posted by George View Post
    My wife heard that peroxide is best. Seems right, is it?
    Which peroxide, and for what? Hydrogen peroxide is not something I'd apply repeatedly to skin.

    Grant Hutchison

  28. #838
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    Which peroxide, and for what? Hydrogen peroxide is not something I'd apply repeatedly to skin.
    Yes, hydrogen peroxide. You just prompted her memory that the use of it was for surfaces, so thanks for catching it.
    We know time flies, we just can't see its wings.

  29. #839
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    Alcohol has been used as an effective disinfectant for literally hundreds of years. It was discovered by Razi I think about 900 years ago by distilling wine. Hand-sanitizers on the other-hand, I am old enough to remember there was no such thing. At least in part it is an item for profit taking by diluting cheap alcohol and selling it for much higher profits. Repeated use of alcohol does have the tendency to dry your skin, but then so do hand-sanitisers and to a much more degree soap and water.
    The moral of the story: use hand cream if you clean your hands too often.

  30. #840
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    Great, now I am being advised not to go out in public because I am over 60 and have chronic illnesses. Well, fine, I'll be a hermit and bother people online. As long as I get paid for it. https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/06/healt...ing/index.html
    Went out and broke curfew, helping my wife at a nearby miniconvention. The CDC will be angry, but I am a maverick. Not a smart maverick, though.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

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